日時：2024年4月5日（金）16時50分～18時50分　

会場: 国際公共政策研究科棟6階会議室　

講師：Asad Islam 氏 (Monash University)

タイトル："Forced Displacement, Mental Health, and Child Development: Evidence from the Rohingya Refugees"

アブストラクト：Forced displacement is a major driver of mental disorders among refugees worldwide. Poor mental health of adult refugees, particularly mothers, is also considered a risk factor for the psychological well-being and development of their children. In this study, we experimentally examine the extent to which a multifaceted psychosocial program improves the mental health of refugee mothers, and facilitates growth and development among children under the age of two. In partnership with BRAC, we ran a cluster randomized controlled trial on 3,500 Rohingya mother-child dyads in refugee camps in Bangladesh. Participants were given weekly psychosocial support for 44 weeks through peer volunteers, which includes psychoeducation and parenting support for mothers and play activities for both mothers and children. The intervention was largely successful and led to: (i) reductions in the psychological trauma and depression severity of mothers and children, (ii) improvements in communication, gross-motor, and problem-solving skills of children, and (iii) reductions in stunting and severe stunting. The intervention cost about $1 per dyad per week and is currently being scaled up in refugee camps in Bangladesh, where about seventeen thousand mother-child pairs now benefit from it.

日時：2024年5月23日（木）13時30分～15時00分　

会場: 国際公共政策研究科棟6階会議室　

講師：Shurojit Chatterji氏（Singapore Management University）

タイトル："Efficiency with Heterogenous forecasts"

アブストラクト：Do price forecasts of rational economic agents need to coincide in intertemporal perfectly competitive complete markets in order for markets to allocate resources efficiently? Recent work in a two-period model with a nominal bond has shown that there is a one dimensional set of efficient allocations for generic endowments that can be sustained by heterogenous forecasts. Moreover, these efficient allocations can be supported by forecasts that disagree up to one degree of freedom. Thus, strong as efficiency and perfect competition may appear, they do not imply perfect foresight, but they do add explanatory power to temporary equilibrium, since they select a small subset out of the Pareto efficient allocations, which generally have higher dimension. We next study a muti-period model with a nominal bond that matures in one period and identify the set of efficient allocations that can be sustained as Walrasian equilibria with heterogenous forecasts. We then add a long maturity bond, which under perfect foresight would be a redundant asset, and show that it fundamentally expands the set of efficient allocations that can be sustained as Walrasian equilibria. Indeed all wealth transfers compatible with efficiency can arise endogenously. The key feature driving this conclusion are forecasting errors, which lead to ex post arbitrage opportunities that induce these income transfers.

日時：2024年5月30日（木）13：30～15：00　

会場：豊中キャンパス国際公共政策研究科6階会議室

講師：小西　秀男氏（Boston College）

タイトル："Competing Teams in Large Markets: Free Entry Equilibrium with (Sub-)Optimal Contracts"

アブストラクト：In this paper, we formalize a market with a large number of competing production teams following Alchian and Demsetz (1974). We allow for wide-spread externalities which can affect players’ payoffs. These externalities include changes in market conditions and pollutions, and may generate a variety of equilibrium outcomes. There are finite types of atomless players, who can form team-firms with finite memberships using available technologies. Given an arbitrary set of feasible partnership contracts for each team type, we consider free entry equilibrium as our equilibrium concept in a free entry equilibrium, no team type can attract its members from other teams by proposing any implementable partnership contract. Furthermore, in a free entry equilibrium, players of the same type may have different payoffs unequal treatment of equals. We show that as long as each firm type’s implementable payoff set is compact and continuous in externality variables, there exists a free entry equilibrium. We provide several applications of our results.

日時：2024年6月6日（木）13：30～15：00

会場：豊中キャンパス国際公共政策研究科6階会議室

講師：Hyunseok Jung氏（University of Arkansas）　

タイトル："Testing for Peer Effects without Specifying the Network Structure"

アブストラクト：This paper proposes an Anderson-Rubin (AR) test for the presence of peer effects in panel data without the need to specify the network structure.The unrestricted model of our test is a linear panel data model of social interactions with dyad-specific peer effects. The proposed AR test evaluates if the peer effect coefficients are all zero. As the number of peer effect coefficients increases with the sample size, so does the number of instrumental variables (IVs) employed to test the restrictions under the null, rendering Bekker’s many-IV environment. By extending existing many-IV asymptotic results to panel data, we establish the asymptotic validity of the proposed AR test. Our Monte Carlo simulations show the robustness and superior performance of the proposed test compared to some existing tests with misspecified networks. We provide two applications to demonstrate its empirical relevance. 

日時：2024年6月27日（木）13：30～15：00

会場：豊中キャンパス国際公共政策研究科6階会議室

講師：佐野　隆司氏（横浜国立大学）

【マクロ研共催セミナー】

日時：2024年7月19日（金）13:30～16:50

会場：豊中キャンパス法経研究棟7階　大会議室

【13:30-15:00】

講師：稲垣　一真氏（ロチェスター大学）

タイトル： "The Exporter and Productivity Dynamics: The Effect of Trade Liberalization"

アブストラクト：This paper studies how R&D and export investment magnifies the welfare gain from trade liberalization. I develop a dynamic heterogeneous firm international trade model with investment in productivity-enhanced R&D and export technology. I find that the R&D with a dynamic export technology enhances the welfare gain from trade liberalization, in contrast to the canonical model with static firms' export decisions. I quantitatively demonstrate that the welfare gain from trade liberalization of the model with R&D is higher than that without R&D by 40%, compared to 2% at a static export model. These findings suggest that static trade models are an even worse approximation of dynamic trade models than we thought.

【15:20-16:50 】

講師：保里　俊介氏（一橋大学）

タイトル："Quarantine and Its Scar on Labor "

アブストラクト：TBA

日時：2024年７月25日（木）13:30～16：40

会場：豊中キャンパス法経研究棟1階　eコモンズ

【13：30～15：00】

講師：土居　直史氏（小樽商科大学）

タイトル："Optimizing Multiple Airport Charges with Endogenous Airline Quality Considering the Marginal Cost of Public Funds"

アブストラクト：Airport operation costs are financed by charge revenues from airport users and funds transferred from general government funds. This study quantitatively optimizes the rates of three types of airport-related charges: per-passenger charges (e.g., passenger service facility charges), per-flight charges (e.g., landing fees), and aviation fuel tax, explicitly considering the marginal cost of public funds of the general funds. This study uses a route-level empirical structural model in which airlines with market power set both airfares and service quality (i.e., flight frequency). Our results show that it is optimal to increase the transfer from the general funds from the current amount and that the optimization increases social welfare by 19 percent. Even if the amount of the transfer is fixed at the current level, the social welfare can be increased by 10 percent only by adjusting the current rates of the airport-related charges. In particular, we show that charges should be adjusted so as to increase flight frequency on routes where small aircraft are used.

【15:10～16：40】

講師：守屋　隆弘氏（Stony Brook University）　

タイトル："Communication Technology Advance and Consequences: Using Two-sided Search Model"

アブストラクト：Does communication technology advance, such as online dating sites and social networking services, really make us happier? In this paper, I construct a non-stationary two-sided search market equilibrium model to analyze the quantitative effects of the communication technology advance on individuals’ marital behavior and social welfare. In the model, I include cohabitation as well as marriage as an individual choice, and provide a new  identification argument for separately identifying parameters that have been considered important but difficult to identify, with new proof of the existence of the non-stationary market equilibrium. Using the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, I quantify the effects of the communication technology advance on society and reveal which types of individuals benefit from it.

日時：2024年8月1日（木）13：30～15：00

会場：豊中キャンパス　法経研究棟7階　大会議室

講師：能勢　学氏（IMF）

タイトル："From Battlefield to Marketplace: Industrialization via Interregional Highway Investment in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region"

アブストラクト：This paper evaluates non-linear impact of a large-scale highway construction project in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region, linking the mountainous China-Vietnam borders to industrial centers in northeastern Vietnam. Employing the market access approach alongside geo-coded highway network and firm-level panel data, we estimate the effects of the highway upgrades, accounting for their spillover impact through production input-output linkages. Exploiting variations in geographic conditions, our findings reveal that enhanced market potential has led to the agglomeration of manufacturing firms in both core and peripheral cities, accompanied by significant creation of manufacturing employment in rural peripheries. The paper delves into the underlying mechanism driving polycentric development patterns, highlighting pronounced GMS treatment effects in second-tier cities with intermediate production linkages and connections to major national roads. The overall findings remain robust when the impact of Vietnam’s industrial zones is controlled, underscoring that the upgraded highway connectivity has played a pivotal role in facilitating economy-wide industrialization over the decade.

【GSE-OSIPP-ISER Joint Conference in Economics 2024】

日時：2024年9月24・25日（火・水）9：00～12：30　　

Tuesday, September 24:

講師：Kohei Yata (University of Wisconsin-Madison) Koki Fusejima (Hitotsubashi University) Shoya Ishimaru (Hitotsubashi University)

Wednesday, September 25:　

講師：Yasutaka Koike-Mori (UCLA) Yoshiki Ando (Boston University) Young In Lee (Hokkaido University)

プログラム：GSE-OSIPP-ISER Joint Conference in Economics 2024

申込【締め切り9/18】

日時：2024年10月3日（木）13：30～15：00

会場：豊中キャンパス法経講義棟eコモンズ

講師：Tsung-Hsien Li氏 (Academia Sinica)

タイトル："Air Connectivity and International Travel: Evidence from Cross-border Card Payments"

アブストラクト：Many countries seek to attract foreign travelers. How do direct flight connections affect the spending of international visitors? A novel dataset on card payments made by Chinese travelers enables us to investigate that question. We instrument for the frequency of direct flights between Chinese cities and foreign countries by exploiting overseas airport expansions as exogenous shocks. Our estimate suggests that in a city with the average frequency, adding one extra weekly direct flight increases the transaction value by 52%. While improving air connectivity promotes travel, we find that negative shocks to consumer preferences diminish the positive impact of air connectivity.

日時：2024年10月31日（木）13：30～15：00

会場：豊中キャンパス国際公共政策研究科6階会議室

講師：高山　遥氏 (University at Albany, State University of New York )

タイトル: "Air Connectivity and International Travel: Evidence from Cross-border Card Payments"

アブストラクト: Many countries seek to attract foreign travelers. How do direct flight connections affect the spending of international visitors? A novel dataset on card payments made by Chinese travelers enables us to investigate that question. We instrument for the frequency of direct flights between Chinese cities and foreign countries by exploiting overseas airport expansions as exogenous shocks. Our estimate suggests that in a city with the average frequency, adding one extra weekly direct flight increases the transaction value by 52%. While improving air connectivity promotes travel, we find that negative shocks to consumer preferences diminish the positive impact of air connectivity.

日時：2024年11月7日（木）13：30～15：00

会場：豊中キャンパス国際公共政策研究科6階会議室

講師：佐野　隆司氏（横浜国立大学）

タイトル："Beyond Quasilinearity: Exploring Nonlinear Scoring Rules in Procurement Auctions "

(joint with Makoto Hanazono, Jun Nakabayashi, and Masanori Tsuruoka)

アブストラクト：This study examines procurement auctions in which bidders submit price and quality, and they are evaluated using the price-per-quality-ratio scoring rule. We formulate a model of scoring auctions in which bidders’ cost is determined by unidimensional type and unidimensional quality. We characterize the equilibrium bidding behavior for the first-score and second-score auctions. In contrast to the well-known quasilinear scoring rules in which price and quality are additively separable and score is linear in price, the equivalence theorem does not hold between the auction formats. We show that the second-score auction yields a lower (better) expected score than the first-score auction. We provide a set of conditions under which the expected quality and price are higher in the first-score auction than in the second-score auction. We also argue how these results can be extended to other non-quasilinear scoring rules.

日時：2024年11月15日（金）15：10～16：40

会場：豊中キャンパス　法経研究棟7階　大会議室

講師：François Vaillancourt (University of Montreal)

タイトル：Canada’s tax/transfer system : issues of carbon taxation, personal income tax(PIT) complexity and equalisation & health/social schemes

アブストラクト：This presentation will first briefly summarize Canadian federal arrangements. That done it will focus on the three current issues listed in the title .For carbon taxation, we will present the dual federal(backstop)/provincial first mover arrangements, discuss the ‘’Slustky’’ compensation mechanism and note current policy/political debates .For PIT, we will present the evolution of the provincial PITs since 2000, discuss the measurement of PIT complexity and compliance costs and present results on those indicators. For equalisation and health/social schemes we present emerging (2020+) issues of coordination and policy/political debates.

日時：2024年11月28日（木）13：30～15：00

会場：豊中キャンパス　法経研究棟1階　eコモンズ

講師：Danial Lashkari氏 (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

タイトル："Growth Through Innovation Bursts"

アブストラクト：In theories of creative destruction, product innovation is a key driver of aggregate economic growth. In this paper, we confront the predictions of these models with the empirical patterns of product innovation, documented based on product-level data on the near-universe of French manufacturing firms. Two key patterns in our data stand in contrast to the workings of the conventional models. First, we find that product innovation is best described as a process of “bursts”–episodes where firms rapidly add a series of products to their portfolio. These bursts lead to substantial shifts in revenue and explain the majority of the variance in firm-level growth. Second, we find that the growth in product-level revenue declines over the course of a product’s life cycle, indicating a diminishing effectiveness of process innovation. Including these features into a quantitative framework that nests the canonical models of creative destruction, we show that innovation bursts explain the concentration of production in a small number of large firms. Our model thus enables the joint study of the determinants of industry concentration and growth in a setting consistent with the empirical patterns of product dynamics. In a quantitative comparison against the conventional models, our theory attributes to creative destruction a substantially greater impact on aggregate productivity growth and on the concentration of production.

日時：2024年12月6日（金）13：30～16：50

会場：豊中キャンパス　法経研究棟7階　大会議室

【13:30-15:00】 

講師：蓮井　康平氏（愛知大学）

タイトル：Heterogeneous Inflation Volatility in Production Networks: Producer vs. Consumer Prices (with Teruyoshi Kobayashi) 

アブストラクト：We investigate the sources of heterogeneity in producer and consumer price inflation rates at both industry and aggregate levels. To this end, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with a production network, allowing us to disentangle the effects of producer price stickiness and consumer price stickiness in the transmission of sectoral shocks, a distinction often overlooked in theoretical models. We demonstrate that sectoral cost-push shocks and network connectivity play crucial roles in explaining the relative volatility between producer and consumer price inflation in the U.S. Additionally, we quantify how these sectoral cost-push shocks propagate through cascading changes in producer prices, ultimately influencing the aggregate consumer price.

【15:20-16:50 】

講師：小川　俊明氏（武蔵大学）

タイトル：Regulating Credit Booms from Micro and Macro Perspectives 

アブストラクト：This study examines how micro- and macro-prudential policies work and interact in the general equilibrium model of banking. Micro-prudential policies restrict the excess risk-taking of individual institutions while taking real interest rates (prices) as given. In contrast, macro-prudential policies control aggregate credit supply (equilibrium outcome) by internalizing prices or general equilibrium effects. The model indicates that: (i) macro-prudential policy sacrifices credit provision to maintain banks’ monitoring incentives; (ii) when combined with micro-prudential policy, macro-prudential policy can offset the decrease in credit supply without deteriorating credit quality; and (iii) the contribution of macro-prudential policy to social welfare is an order of magnitude smaller than that of micro-prudential policy. Finally, we embed this mechanism into endogenous credit boom-and-bust cycles and characterize the profile of credit cycles with and without each policy by illustrating the ergodic distribution.

日時：2025年1月8日（水）13：30～15：00

会場：豊中キャンパス法経講義棟7階　大会議室

講師：Martin Mattsson氏（National University of Singapore）

タイトル：Dual misbeliefs and technology adoption: Evidence from air purifiers in Bangladesh

アブストラクト： Dhaka, Bangladesh, consistently ranks as one of the world's most polluted cities, yet fewer than 1\% of the middle-class households we contacted own an air purifier. Why don't these households, who can afford air purifiers, adopt them despite the extremely high levels of ambient air pollution? We found that while indoor air can be nearly as polluted as outdoor air, households believe it is much cleaner. Furthermore, although air purifiers are highly effective at filtering indoor pollutants, households are uncertain about their effectiveness. This uncertainty reduces their willingness to pay for these devices to less than a tenth of the retail cost. To address these misconceptions, we conducted a multi-phase field experiment by providing air monitors and purifiers to these households. Households with air monitors realized their indoor air was more polluted than those without monitors, but this did not increase their willingness to pay for purifiers. Similarly, providing air purifiers reduced uncertainty about their effectiveness, yet households seldom used them—even when compensated for electricity costs. However, households that received both monitors and purifiers significantly increased both their usage and valuation of the purifiers. Our findings suggest that correcting misperceptions about both the severity of the problem and the effectiveness of the solution is necessary to boost the adoption and use of certain preventive health technologies.

日時：2025年1月23日（木）10：30～12：00

開催方法：オンラインセミナー

講師：Chen Lin （The University of California San Diego）

タイトル：Nonlinear Synthetic Control and Unconfoundedness Approach

アブストラクト：In this manuscript, we extend the synthetic control method to a nonlinear setting, where weights are chosen by matching both the outcome levels and their nonlinear transformations. We motivate the method by introducing a linear factor model in which the outcome level can directly depend nonlinearly on its lagged values, which we refer to as a dynamic linear factor model. In this context, we derive an error bound for estimating counterfactual potential outcomes and demonstrate that this bound can be significantly reduced by matching nonlinear transformations of the pre-treatment outcome variables. Additionally, we link the synthetic control method to the machine learning literature by reinterpreting the synthetic control method as a maximal mean discrepancy (MMD) minimization problem. The feature map therein serves as the nonlinear transformation in our proposed method. As part of our theoretical investigation, we establish a dual relationship between the synthetic control problem and an unconfoundedness problem. Specifically, we show that the asymptotic normality of synthetic control estimate, even when the number of features is increasing with respect to the sample size. We illustrate the performance of our proposed nonlinear synthetic control method in both simulation studies and an empirical example.

日時：2025年1月23日（木）13：30～15：00

会場：豊中キャンパス法経講義棟1階　eコモンズ

講師：樋口　裕城　氏（上智大学）

タイトル：The Rise of Service Clusters: Evidence from a Vietnamese Wholesale Market (joint with Le Bich Ngan and Mari Tanaka)

アブストラクト：Clusters of firms selling similar products are commonly observed in cities. While clustering brings higher competition, why do firms cluster? To examine the origin and emergence of clusters, we focus on a unique natural experiment in one of the largest wholesale markets in Vietnam. Following a devastating fire in 1994, the market was rebuilt, and firm locations (slots) within the new building were allocated via lottery in 1997. Based on a retrospective survey of all firms selling apparel and fabric products, we find that the initial allocation of slots was indeed random. However, over time, firms clustered by product type, with slots initially surrounded by a certain product being more likely to sell the same product today. This clustering occurred shortly after reopening, exhibiting strong path dependency. Our findings provide new insights into the mechanisms driving the rise of service clusters. 

日時：2025年1月24日（金）10：30～12：00

開催方法：オンライン

講師：Yan Liu氏　(Boston University)

タイトル：Robust Counterfactual Analysis for Nonlinear Panel Data Models

アブストラクト：This paper studies robust counterfactual analysis in a wide variety of nonlinear panel data models. I focus on counterfactual predictions of the behavior of an outcome variable under exogenous manipulations of endogenous explanatory variables. I avoid parametric distributional assumptions and only impose time homogeneity on the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. I derive the sharp identified set for the distribution of the counterfactual outcome, noting that point identification is impossible in general. I provide tractable implementation procedures for popular nonlinear models, including binary choice, ordered choice, censored regression, and multinomial choice, by exploiting an index separability condition. I propose inference for sharp bounds on counterfactual probabilities based on aggregate intersection bounds and Bonferroniadjusted confidence intervals. As empirical illustrations, I apply my approach to actual data to predict female labor force participation rates under counterfactual fertility scenarios, as well as market shares of different saltine cracker brands under counterfactual pricing schemes.

日時：2025年1月27日（月）13：30～15：00

会場：豊中キャンパス法経講義棟7階　大会議室

講師：大津　優貴氏（東京大学）

タイトル：Does police misconduct increase crime?

Abstract: This study investigates how police misconduct affects police activities by analyzing changes in key operational indicators such as arrest counts and clearance rates. Using disciplinary action reports from police stations in Tokyo between 2013 and 2023 as a quasi-experimental framework, short-term effects of misconduct on police performance are identified. The findings indicate a significant increase in theft arrests in the year a misconduct case is reported, primarily driven by burglary thefts. The surge in arrests reflects an organizational response aimed at maintaining operational performance and compensating for reputational damage. Simultaneously, a decrease in the number of recognized crimes, particularly non-burglary thefts, suggests discretionary adjustments in crime reporting practices. The combined effect temporarily improves the clearance rate for thefts, but these changes are concentrated on minor crimes and lack long-term sustainability. These results highlight the tendency of police organizations to reallocate resources toward improving visible performance indicators, such as arrest counts, in response to public scrutiny and misconduct. The findings emphasize the importance of adopting more comprehensive performance measures that promote substantial improvements in public trust and safety.

日時：2025年1月28日（火）13：30～15：00

会場：豊中キャンパス法経講義棟7階　大会議室

講師：高橋　資哲氏 (University of Mainz)

タイトル：The Aggregate Effects of the Great Black Migration

アブストラクト：How did the Great Black Migration affect aggregate US output and the welfare of Black and non-Black Americans? To answer this question, I quantify an overlapping generations model of the spatial economy where different age and racial groups are imperfectly substitutable. The mobility of Black Americans across the North and the South increased aggregate output in 1970 by 0.7 percent. For the 1930s cohort, the mobility increased the welfare of Black Americans in the South by 2.2 percent, decreased the welfare of Black Americans in the North by 0.1 percent, and did not change the welfare of non-Black Americans.